Zika Virus

Quantitative Methods of Preventing Zika Virus
EMV
To develop the Expected Monetary Value Analysis of the Zika Virus, we will have three risk levels; high, moderate, and low risk. The distribution of risks in terms of probabilities is 0.2 for high, 0.5 for moderate, and 0.3 for the low risk. The EMV analysis will be calculated as follows, as Usmani (2018) explained. The EMV for each risk level is determined by multiplying the probability of the occurrence of the risk and the potential impact, which is a dollar figure. In the end, the total EMVs are added to get the entire sum that should be set aside for the mitigation of the effects of the Virus, at least in the most realistic terms.
Risk Level
Probability
Impact ($ Millions)
EMV (Millions)
High
0.2
5
1
Moderate
0.5
3
1.5
Low
0.3
2
0.6

Total EMV (Millions)
3.1

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Delphi Method
The PMBOK Guide explains that the Delphi Technique is used to capture input from technical experts and helps do away with any sources of bias. The method deals only with technical risks and is highly dependent on the expertise of the experts in action. When the Delphi technique was executed, the following was the result.
Risk ID#
Identified Scheduling Risk
Task ID#
Mitigating Tasks
Estimated Time On Task in Days (CO)
Person 2 (CK)
Person 3 (JD)
Time on Task (duration)
Average
1.000
Construction of quick labs, containment areas to house patients
1.0
Transportation of patients to/from labs
2.0
5.0
0.7
2.57
1.1
Regular sterilization of containment labs
2.5
1.0
0.56
1.35
1.2
Transportation/availability of medical equipment
1.5
7.0
1.162
3.22
1.3
Obtaining medical records/clearance to treat patients
3.5
3.0
2.1
2.87
1.4
Determine location of labs
5.0
7.0
1.4
4.47

2.000
Delivery of antidote to the affected area
2.5
Delays in the delivery of medical equipment
2.0
10.0
2.8
4.93
2.6
Setting up routes through hospitals/labs
1.0
2.0
0.75
1.25
2.7
Shortage of antidote due to human error
1.5
2.0
3
2.17
2.8
Doctor/nurse misapplication of antidote
2.5
3.0
1
2.17
2.9
Allergy testing process/delay of the process
3.0
4.0
3.2
3.40

3.000
Lack of medical treatment/knowledge/personnel and evaluation
3.1
Proper medical staff on hand to handle a certain number of patients
1.5
2.0
5
2.83
3.11
Scheduling of subject matter experts for each lab 24/7 until outbreak ends
1.0
3.0
5
3.00
3.12
Collaboration with other institutes and medical centers (Intramural, extramural experts)
4.5
5.0
8
5.83
3.13
Obtaining all recent relevant research/treatment methods
5.5
4.0
6
5.17
3.14
Diagnosis/Misdiagnosis of virus transmittal
1.5
1.0
1
1.17

In the analysis, it is evident that the two experts had divergent views on how the risk factors should be mitigated. The first person, (CK) seems to be out of touch with the situation on the ground and is giving very mundane durations with which mitigating tasks can be conducted. As such, in the calculation of the average duration, the individual’s input is not included but rather the input of Person 3 (JD) and the estimated time on task are considered during the calculation of the average.
Health care teams and project managers can use the method to develop a sense of reality, especially when such information is missing or hard to find. As such, making plans can be somewhat realistic and without large margins, and would otherwise make projects seem untenable and overly complicated. As explained in the PMBOK Guide, this can be a very important aspect in controlling costs, which are associated with projects relating to public health.
Risk responses
Monitor Risks
The Zika Virus is a pandemic that is glaring on the majority of the population due to the method it uses to get across populations. According to the CDC (2018), Zika virus is spread mostly by mosquito bites. Further, the virus can be passed from mother to the fetus during pregnancy and the infection can cause birth defects to the child. The virus is also transmitted sexually from one infected person to the other, especially if there was no use of condoms during intercourse (CDC, 2018).
The transmission patterns of the virus give a clear picture of those in Florida who are at risk. According to Flhealthcharts.com (2018), Florida experienced 223,579 births in 2017, which was a 0% change from the previous year. This also means that the likely number of pregnant mothers should be slightly higher or lower than this figure. As such, the number of pregnant mothers exposed to the virus is in the ranges of 200,000. These people are the ones who should be monitored to ensure that they are well catered for, due to their exposure to the risk.
The other group of people that is likely to be at risk is the population that is sexually active and do not use protection during intercourse. This particular demographic include teenagers and young adults who easily engage in indiscriminate sex. The intervention mechanisms for this kind of a group would probably be helping them with protection and sensitization to ensure that they are aware of the risks that they are exposing themselves before they engage in unprotected sex.
Control methods
With the knowledge about the spreading methods of the virus, which include mosquito bites, mother to child, and unprotected sex, it is easier to develop protection methods. The PMBOK Guide explains that with monitoring and controlling risk processes is important to ensure that there is an evaluation of their effectiveness throughout the project life cycle.
The very first control mechanism for Zika Virus is to contain mosquito bites. This should be done through the management of waste and stagnant water in housing estates. Further, the population needs to be assisted with mosquito nets and specific attention should be given to pregnant mothers. There should be sufficient mechanisms to ensure that pregnant mothers are protected during their antenatal clinics to ensure that they are well informed of the risks that waylay them. Measures that they should take should also be communicated to them to ensure that together with their unborn child/children they are healthy. The population that engages in indiscriminate sex should be handed condoms and advice on how to change their behaviors. Such supplies should be placed in places where such people frequent for social functions and roles.
The health department should sensitize the entire population about the risk of Zika Virus. The population should be advised to keep off mosquitoes, which pose risks to everyone in the population. To complement the public, the health department should come up with a program for disinfecting estates to remove potential breeding grounds for mosquitoes.
Projects risks, in this case, include high probabilities of occurrence of the risk. The risk of having confirmed cases should be considered highly. The budget to put such people under treatment should be allocated to ensure that the situation is contained before it blows out of proportions.
Rather et al. (2017) in their advice on how to mitigate the Zika virus acknowledged that the virus had serious health implications, especially to pregnant mothers because it causes microcephaly and Guillain-Barre syndrome. Rather et al. (2017) in their discussion, have recommended that people should avoid traveling to infected areas as a control mechanism and avoid mosquito bites. Precautions about sexual transmissions and seeking medical care are necessary should one get any sickness that is acute and characterized by rashes or fever. For people who might think they have the virus, Rather et al. explain that signs and symptoms include skin rashes, mild fever, myalgia, red-eyes, and joint pain. The discussion explains that the majority of the people infected with the virus rarely get sick and the mortality rate is very low. Due to the low show of the virus, mitigation measures are often hampered as people with the virus are rarely known. The Zika pandemic is, therefore, a serious occurrence that hides itself making it hard for the health department to control it. As such, it requires the use of methods known as preventative to keep populations safe. The disease poses real threats to pregnant mothers and as such, all measures need to be pulled to ensure that the newborn children in the region are safe and healthy.

References
CDC. (2018). Prevention and Transmission. Retrieved November 30, 2018
PMBOK Guide, Part 1, section 11.5 “Plan Risk Responses” pp.437-438

  1. PMBOK Guide (PMI: 6th edition, 2017) Section 11.5.2 “Plan Risk Responses: Tools and Techniques” p.441 through 11.5.3.2 “Project Risk Mgt. Plan Updates”, page 447.
    https://searchsecurity.techtarget.com/opinion/Protecting-Intellectual-Property-Best-Practices
  2. PMBOK Guide (PMI, 2017, 6th edition). Part 1. Section 11.6 “Implement Risk Response”, p.449 to 11.6.3.2 “Project Document Updates”, p.452
    PMBOK Guide (PMI, 2017, 6th edition), Section 1, 7.4 “Control Costs”p.257 – section 7.4.3 “Control Costs: Outputs”
  3. Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI, 2009). Appendix D: Diagrams, charts and risk identification methods from pp.78-84
    Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (PMI, 2009), Ch. 9 “Monitor and Control Risks Responses”
    Calculating EMV: A short guide to expected monetary value
    https://pmstudycircle.com/2015/01/a-short-guide-to-expected-monetary-value-emv/
    Flhealthcharts.com. (2018). Total Resident Live Births. Retrieved from Florida health charts: http://www.flhealthcharts.com/charts/DataViewer/BirthViewer/BirthViewer.aspx?cid=0025
    Rather, I. A., Kumar, S., Bajpai, V. K., Lim, J., & Park, Y. H. (2017). Prevention and control strategies to counter Zika epidemic. Frontiers in microbiology, 8, 305

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